@Article{SiqueiraJśniorTomaRodr:2015:ImFuCl,
author = "Siqueira J{\'u}nior, Jos{\'e} L{\'a}zaro and Tomasella, Javier
and Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the
hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin",
journal = "Climatic Change",
year = "2015",
volume = "129",
pages = "117--129",
keywords = "Agriculture, Climate models, Deforestation, Economics, Forestry,
Hydrology, Land use, Rivers, Watersheds.",
abstract = "Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of
the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes
the development of hydropower to satisfy the countrys growing
energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and
economic development. Because of evidences that climate change
impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study
was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover
change caused by deforestation could affect the rivers
hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a
large-scale hydrological model for the period from 19701990 and
analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present
hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as
input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were
used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and
without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest
conversion to pasture for the period from 20112099. Although
results show variability among models, consensus scenarios
indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations
included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on
low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower
basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the
more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the
basin.",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x",
issn = "0165-0009",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}